Enduring the Unrest, Facing the Eruption – CAV2026: Global Volcano Communities

Dates & Venue:  27–29 October 2026, Naples, Italy

Organisers

• Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Osservatorio Vesuviano (Italy)
• Icelandic Meteorological Office – IMO (Iceland)
• Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias – INVOLCAN (Spain).

With the support of the IAVCEI Commission Cities and Volcanoes.

A: Objectives and relevance

B: Context-specific complexities

C: Expected Outcomes

D: Programme

Objectives and Relevance

The workshop Enduring the Unrest, Facing the Eruption addresses two distinct yet equally critical volcanic scenarios, each posing unique challenges from scientific, sociological, territorial management, and risk governance perspectives.

1. Prolonged volcanic unrest

–     In scientific terms, unrest involves sustained monitoring and interpretation of precursory phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gas emissions, and thermal anomalies — all of which may evolve over months or years.

–     From a risk management perspective, this scenario is characterized by the uncertainty of the “waiting for eruption” period, which may culminate in an eruption or not. Such outcomes can erode public trust in volcanologists and civil protection agencies, particularly if expectations are not met or if risk messages are perceived as inconsistent.

–     Managing unrest requires continuously balancing preparedness with the need to avoid alarm fatigue, while integrating probabilistic hazard assessment with adaptive communication strategies.

1. Persistent or prolonged volcanic activity

–     In scientific terms, volcanoes that present continuous or frequently recurring eruptive activity that may last for years or decades, requiring detailed understanding of eruption cycles, transitions between low-level and paroxysmal phases, and potential pauses in activity.

–     From a governance and community perspective, persistent and/or prolonged activity raises different operational questions: How should communities live with the “everyday” hazard? How should authorities and citizens respond during paroxysmal events? What actions are needed if activity stops — and for how long before preparedness measures change?

–     This scenario demands robust long-term planning, clear operational protocols, and sustained engagement with communities to manage both the “ordinary” and the “extraordinary” phases of volcanic behaviour.

Context-specific complexities

The impacts and management strategies for both scenarios can vary greatly depending on the geographical and socio-economic setting:

– Urban and peri-urban areas often face high population densities, critical infrastructure exposure, and complex evacuation logistics.

– Peculiar natural and land use frameworks require integration of risk management with land-use practices and economic dependence on primary production.

– Insular settings present unique constraints in accessibility, evacuation routes, and resource availability.

– Communities and socio-economic contexts influence both the capacity to respond and the resilience to prolonged or recurring hazards.

These challenges are often amplified in tourist destinations, where hazard management must address:
– Seasonal fluctuations in population density and territorial use.

– Economic dependency on tourism, which can be impacted by unrest or eruptions at any stage.

– The additional risk generated by the transient and often risk-unaware tourist population, requiring targeted communication and evacuation planning at short, medium, and long timescales.

By explicitly addressing these contrasting volcanic situations and their diverse territorial contexts, the workshop will:

– Foster scientific exchange on monitoring, modelling, and interpreting complex, long-duration volcanic processes.

– Develop shared strategies for communication, preparedness, and decision-making under uncertainty.

– Bring together scientists, decision-makers, and communities to co-produce actionable frameworks adaptable to different cultural, geographical, and socio-economic contexts.

This dual focus is directly aligned with the IUGG mission to integrate scientific excellence with societal needs, ensuring that volcanic risk governance is informed by both cutting-edge research and lived experience. As part of the CAV2026: Global Volcano Communities series, endorsed by the IAVCEI Cities and Volcanoes Commission, the workshop will strengthen the global capacity to live with — and respond effectively to — these challenging volcanic realities.

Expected Outcomes

The workshop is intended to generate enduring outcomes that will extend well beyond the event itself, fostering long-term scientific collaboration and societal benefits.

1. Strengthened and integrated scientific knowledge base

• Assessment of the state-of-the-art in monitoring, hazard and risk assessment, risk management, and community engagement during volcanic unrest and persistent/prolonged activity, based on thematic reports and multi-country case studies and approaches presented.
• Identification of current research gaps and priorities, providing a basis for future collaborative projects and funding proposals at national and international levels.

1. Actions and policy-relevant guidance for emergency preparedness.

• A set of actionable guidelines for improving volcanic risk governance under conditions of prolonged unrest or persistent/prolonged activity, tailored to different territorial contexts (urban, rural agricultural and forestry, insular, tourist destinations).
• Recommendations for integrating scientific monitoring results with decision-making processes, including criteria for escalation, de-escalation, and

1. Networking and long-term collaboration

• Creation of an international network of practitioners and researchers focused on volcanic unrest and persistent/prolonged activity, linked to the IAVCEI Cities and Volcanoes Commission and the broader IUGG community.
• Identification of opportunities for follow-up activities, such as joint training workshops, reciprocal study visits, or collaborative field exercises in different volcanic regions.

1. Public engagement and societal impact

• Improved strategies for risk communication targeting both resident populations and transient groups such as tourists, with particular attention to maintaining trust during non-eruptive unrest or activity pauses.
• Increased public awareness of volcanic hazards and preparedness measures, informed by best practices shared during the event.

By bringing together and integrating scientific outputs with practical tools for communities and decision-makers, the workshop will contribute to building global resilience to volcanic hazards. The expected outcomes align closely with IUGG’s mission of promoting science in service to society and will ensure that the benefits of the event persist long after its conclusion.

Programme

The three-day workshop is structured to maximise interaction, knowledge exchange, and the integration of scientific, operational, and community perspectives. Building on the themes identified in the original programme — keynote presentations, targeted case studies, moderated roundtables, and a field-based component — the event is organised to directly reflect the workshop’s core objectives.

Across both thematic days, the roundtable discussions will serve as a shared arena where scientists, observatory staff, civil-protection officials, and community representatives collectively interpret case studies and operational challenges. As part of these discussions, an interactive session will guide participants in co-developing a framework for knowledge exchange and international support among volcano cities, ensuring that insights from both prolonged unrest and persistent/semi-persistent activity contribute to a coherent, globally transferable approach to volcanic risk governance.

Day 1 – Enduring the unrest. Topic: Phenomena, hazards, and risk associated with unrest phases. Managing unrest at active volcanoes from scientists, decision makers, and citizens prospectives.

Day 2 – Living in active volcanic areas. Fieldtrips

Day 3 – Facing the eruption. Topic: Phenomena, hazards, and risk associated with eruptive and post-eruptive phases. Views from scientists, decision makers, and citizens prospectives.

Virtual participation will be available for the sessions via streaming platform.