20-24 September 2027, Nicolosi (Sicily, Italy)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Volcano Observatory Best Practices 6 (VOBP6) <\/strong>meeting will be held on during the week of 20\u201324 September 2027 in Nicolosi, at the foot of Mount Etna in Sicily (Italy). The subject of the meeting is \u201cDecision-Support Tools for Volcano Observatories.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n Faced with vast amounts of multi-parametric data, volcano observatories are increasingly reliant upon a variety of decision-support tools to assist with monitoring, analysis, communication of warnings, and modeling of potential outcomes. Related products include hazard maps, detailed scenarios, forecasts, and fully probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazards. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Different methods are used to develop these products, such as gathering and distilling knowledge from experts (both from the VO and their collaborators at research institutions and universities); creation of new physical, conceptual, and empirical models; and aggregation of expert opinion through structured elicitation and\/or using an event-tree framework. Most likely scenarios, or worst-case scenarios, can be then identified from the output of these analyses, and their likelihood, or the likelihood to exceed these scenarios, can be quantified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All of the information contained in these products needs then to be conveyed to decision makers and stakeholders, requiring communication of the associated uncertainty in the maps, scenarios, forecasts, or probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The way these products, and the uncertainty associated to them, is received, \u201cdigested\u201d, and used by decision makers involves implicit or explicit quantification of risk tolerance and risk acceptance, and a proper communication from VOs to decision makers can help the latter to define a rational threshold for risk tolerance and acceptance to properly design response actions. We note that risk management will be different in different settings, but some commonalities of how VOs communicate potential outcomes are worth addressing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Key themes may include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who are ideal candidates to attend?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n It is hoped that each volcano observatory can send 1\u20132 representatives who can share ways that they use, or hope to use modern tools for decision support, for data analysis, probabilistic forecasting, modeling outcomes, and dissemination of information to partners and the public. Presentations on recent advances in uses of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will be welcomed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Typically, VOBP meetings include 50\u2013100 people and presentations and discussions are focused to aid the creation of summary documents that can be shared with the volcano community. The meeting will be organized through IAVCEI\u2019s WOVO Network and it\u2019s VOBP programme. A small committee will be responsible for arranging the meeting agenda. Another committee will arrange meeting logistics for lodging, travel, and meals. Funds for past VOBP meetings have come from Italy\u2019s INGV, the USGS and IAVCEI. Money to support travel by observatory staff will be available through these and other sources. VOBP6 will be possible with the patronage of the municipality of Nicolosi. Further information on meeting logistics will be provided in a meeting circular to be issued and available through the WOVO website<\/a> in late 2026. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Contacts<\/strong>: Laura Sandri (Italy) and Jake Lowenstern (United States)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Decision-Support Tools for Volcano Observatories 20-24 September 2027, Nicolosi (Sicily, Italy) The Volcano Observatory Best Practices 6 (VOBP6) meeting will be held on during the week of 20\u201324 September 2027 in Nicolosi, at the foot of Mount Etna in Sicily (Italy). 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\n\n\n\nInformation for participants<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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